Conventional wisdom says that the Buckeyes lost too much talent when certain players left early for the NFL (Ted Ginn, Jr., Tony Gonzales, and Antonio Pittman) and to graduation (Troy Smith, Doug Datish, Quinn Pitcock, David Patterson and Joel Penton). Those in the know are picking OSU to finish third in the Big Ten this year, behind Michigan and Wisconsin.

A strong case can be made for that point of view. OSU’s QB situation is unsettled, and is not likely to be settled until after the third game of the season. The offense looked lackluster during the Spring Game, and the defense last year was exposed as not that good during the last two games (as well as during the first game against Northern Illinois, though we all refused to believe it at the time). An injury in the defensive secondary and along the defensive line, or at running back, and we may be struggling to play in a second tier bowl.

But there are four things that will give the Buckeyes a chance to play in a BCS bowl this year, if not for the National Championship. The first thing is the schedule. OSU’s first eight games won’t present much of a challenge.


We start off with Youngstown State at home on September 1, and then Akron comes to Columbus on September 8. The Youngstown State game is going to be little more than a live scrimmage for the Buckeyes, and Akron won’t be much more. I don’t mean to condescend to these two fine teams full of fine players. But if OSU played the New England Patriots, we would get the tar beat out of us and it would be little more than a useful live game practice for the Patriots.

The real value of these games will be that our many inexperienced starters will be able to make their mistakes cheaply and learn from them. The key is not to come out of these two games with any kind of complacency.

The next game on September 15 is at Washington. OSU always tries to schedule one tough non-conference game. I use the verb “try” because these games are scheduled several years prior to when they will be played, and there is no way to tell whether a team’s fortunes will be waxing or waning when we get around to playing them. Washington is currently not in top form, at least not the type of form Texas was in the past two years.

Were this game in Columbus, I would predict a convincing win. But the fact that it is in Washington makes it more of challenge. But with two games under the belt, I think OSU will win that game.

The schedule then eases up for some home games. On September 22 we play Northwestern in Columbus. While NW has QB C.J. Bacher coming back with a lot of experience and a good running back in Tyrell Sutton, OSU’s defense and ball possession offense, together with the fact that it is a home game should carry the day for OSU.

September 29 brings with it a trip to Minnesota. I don’t see Minnesota, under a new coach with a lot of new and inexperienced players giving us much of a contest. It is a night game, which many fans at OSU hate, but in recent years we’ve done pretty well with regular season night games. OSU had convincing victories at Texas and at Iowa last year, and came within a twice dropped pass in the endzone of beating Texas with Vince Young at the helm in 2005 in a night game. I think this anti-night game stuff is a bunch of hooey.

Our next night game is at Purdue on October 5. Purdue, while a good team, just doesn’t have the horses to run with OSU this year. Their spread offense is the same type of offense our defense has been handling for years now.

Next up is Kent State at OSU on October 13. Kent State falls into the same category as Akron. A good team that will not be in its league that afternoon. This game was a fill in game because Jim Tressell does not like off weeks.

After that we play Michigan State on October 20. This game is a question mark for me. It is tempting to say that MSU has a new head coach trying to bring along a team full of John L. Smith’s players. The problem is that the new coach is Mark Dantonio, OSU’s defensive coordinator from the last OSU team to win a National Championship and the guy who gave us some fits last year at a home game as the coach of the Cincinnati Bearcats. MSU is on the rise in the Big 10. But I think we will get by them this year.

Next up is our first legitimate challenge of the season, a game at Penn State on October 27. I don’t know if Penn State will be any good this year with a new QB, but we have a new QB as well. Their defense may not be great, but it will be very good, a defense that most teams in the country would envy. To me, this will be OSU’s first real chance for a loss. But this will be the ninth game of the season. 8-0 will be looking pretty good at that point, and 8-1 still won’t be bad. That said, I still think OSU is a better team than PSU, but a few mistakes in that game and we’ll emerge from Happy Valley with an “L”.

On November 3, Wisconsin comes to Columbus. Wisconsin is predicted to finish second in the Big Ten. They have a very good running game and a pretty good defense. But the fact that this game is at home will help OSU quite a bit. So long as we don’t have any injuries to our defense, we have a better than 50/50 chance to win this game. What concerns me is that our defensive line is man for man about 25 pounds lighter this year than it was last year. Rotation will be the key to keeping these lighter, faster, taller guys fresh enough to stop P.J. Hill, Wisconsin’s over-sized, over-fast running back in check. With a win in this game, we are either 9-1 or 10-0. This game is our best chance for a home loss all season long.

On November 10, Illinois comes to Columbus. Ron Zook is a good coach, and the Illini will be better this year than they were last year. Juice Williams, their scrambling QB will have more maturity and experience, but it won’t be enough. The home field advantage and OSU’s greater depth of talent will win this game for us.

That leaves Michigan, as it always does. We play at Michigan, a fact which favors them. But we are coached by Jim Tressel, a fact which favors us. Michigan returns RB Mike Hart, QB Chad Henne and OL Jake Long, facts which favor them. But OSU will be running the ball a lot more this year with the tandem of Wells and Wells, and this will keep the Michigan offense off the field quite a bit more than they are used to.

It comes down to this. If Chad Henne can learn to make long throws over the middle this season, OSU loses in a close game. If not, and barring injuries in key positions, OSU wins in a close, relatively low scoring game. Michigan’s defense is not going to be as good this year, but OSU’s running game and offensive line is going to be better. This is OSU’s best chance for a loss this year, period. With the home field advantage to Michigan, I say the chances are 50/50. But I’ll take those odds.

The ease of the first eight or so games will allow OSU to gain valuable experience and sort out its roster without too much chance of a loss. OSU’s biggest weakness this year will be inexperience, but after 8 games, it is hard to point to inexperience as a flaw. The schedule will help OSU quite a bit this year.

Winning the last four games will put OSU into National Championship Contender status. Losing one of the last four games will still not take us out of a BCS Bowl. Lose two of the last four and we’ll still be playing in Florida or California against a good team, which is good for recruiting.

Losing three of the last four will be disappointing.

The second reason we may be competing for the Big Ten Title and for the National Championship is the offensive line. These guys were good last year, and they are going to be great this year. They are big, fast, deep, and experienced. They have the size to run block and the speed to pass block.

The third reason we may be playing for the National Championship is the running game. I don’t think that any team in the nation has a stronger stable of running backs. There is no runing back in college football that I would take over Chris Wells. He is even starting to look like Jim Brown in the face. Chris and Maurice Wells are also going to have outstanding fullbacks leading the way for them. The only thing that is going to stop either of these guys from going over 1000 yards rushing this year is an injury. This could be the first time that OSU will have two 1000 yard rushers in the same backfield.

Fans might be a bit frustrated in big games with the first half as I think OSU is going to run the ball quite a bit this year. But something I call the John Riggins Factor is going to take over midway through the Third Quarter of most games. John Riggins was a fullback for the Washington Redskins in their heyday of the early to mid 1980s. As the Third Quarter dragged on, his two and three yard runs up the middle became 5 to 10 yard runs up the middle as the defenses wore down.

If you can get your arms around Chris Wells, you and your friends are going to get dragged. With a top quality running back in Maurice Wells backing him up and getting a great many minutes, Chris Wells isn’t going to be tired at any point in the game.

The fourth and final reason that OSU might be playing for the National Championship this season is Jim Tressel. No one expected him to win it all in 2002, and in many ways this team is more talented than that one. I think that we can count on a slowed down, running game oriented, ball control offense which will win a lot of close games.

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