I think that OSU will win this game for four reasons.

1)  The Huskies are big and fast, but lacking depth in their rotation.  That will allow them to match up with OSU early in the game, but so long as OSU does not make mistakes which result in too many points, the relative freshness of the OSU players in the second half will begin to slowly tell against the Husky starters who have played the entire game. 

OSU’s defense is the best that Washington’s offense has seen this year.  There are going to be some three and outs, and that will put the defense back on the field a lot quicker than they are used too.  That will figure into the fatigue factor and should allow players like Chris Wells to start breaking some arm tackles midway through the third quarter.

Further, this will be the first conventional defense that OSU will face this season, so missed blocks are going to be less of a problem. 

2)  Washington is starting a very talented red shirt freshman at QB, Jake Locker.  Freshmen QBs make mistakes.  They drop snaps on big plays.  They get frustrated against better defenses and try to force balls in where they should not go on the theory that they are special and can do almost anything.  The hardest thing for a freshman QB to do sometimes is throw the ball five rows deep into the stands, but that is what is needed sometimes. 

Another thing that is going to get Locker in trouble is his feet.  Against slower teams like Syracuse and Boise State (and Michigan, come to think of it), taking off and running when no one is open will get you a lot of yards.  Against OSU, it is going to get you swarmed under a bunch of guys weighing 250 pounds and more.  Freshman QBs just aren’t patient people, and patience is the only way to win against this OSU defense.

Locker also does not have a lot of people to throw to.  He has completed nearly all of his passes to only two of Washington’s receivers, an oversized and speedy Marcel Reece (6’3 240) and Anthony Russo.  Both receivers are seniors, so they will be polished route runners.  But I have a feeling that they will have trouble getting open against Malcolm Jenkins and Donald Washington.  Since freshmen QBs don’t particularly excel at going through their passing progressions, and since Locker is known for his foot speed, I expect a lot of tucking it under and running.

The Washington running game is powered primarily by pitches to RB Louis Rankin who will try to run it outside.  Running the ball around the end against OSU is like trying to run around the ocean.  OSU’s team speed on defense just isn’t going to allow it.

3)  Washington’s defense gives up a lot of yards to the pass.  We have big receivers who can stretch the field and a QB with a strong and accurate arm.  For throwing the deep ball accurately, Todd Boeckman has few equals.  When you add Ray Small into the mix (returning from injury), there may just be too many options in the passing game for Washington to stop us.  You can also expect to see some draw plays to Maurice Wells as Washington has a tendency on obvious passing downs to drop eight into the passing routes.

The only way that the Washington defense has a chance is to be able to get consistent penetration on the passing plays (ala Florida in last year’s title game).  But while you can fault the offensive line this year for not getting the running game going, no one can say that they haven’t given Boeckman time to throw.

Further, one of Washington’s starting CBs is a true freshman.  Vonzell McDowell is only 5’9 and 176 so he may have some problems guarding taller OSU receivers like Hartline and Robiskie.  Also, as a freshman, expect some of the more experienced OSU receivers like Lyons and Dukes to put some moves on him that he hasn’t seen before.  Since Boeckman always sees open receivers, this could turn into some points early on.

4)  OSU’s special teams are superior in every way to those of Washington.  That’s not a knock on Washington, it’s just that Jim Tressel emphasizes special teams like no other coach.  Washington has not been averaging a lot on their returns, and has been giving up over 30 yards when they kick the ball off.  Against a field position guy like Tressel, that is going to tell.  Further, when you add Ray Small and Brandon Saine together to field kickoffs, starting in Washington territory or even taking one to the house is a real possibility. 

My prediction for the game is OSU 31 Washington 6.

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