There are four teams that are going to be considering this question in earnest in the coming months.  I don’t think any of them will, but here is how I think it can be done (I’m going to exclude talk of injuries at key positions as that could happen to any team and has nothing to do with x’s and o’s).

Putting eight guys in the box and stopping the run isn’t going to work against OSU.  The passing game is just too good for anyone to do that.  I think that the reverse strategy is the only way to go.  Your team is going to have to play nickle and dime defense on every play to stop the big play long ball. 

Your defense is also going to have to be good enough to stop OSU’s running game with its defensive linemen and with only one or two linebackers or some darn good run stoppers in the secondary.  Your line is also going to have to get pressure on Todd Boeckman without having to blitz. 

You are also going to have to have the depth at all these positions to rotate people constantly in and out of the game because any time any team establishes a consistent running game, unreplaced starters on defense tend to get tired out.  Tired defenders start making arm tackles, play out of position, make mental mistakes, and take bad pursuit routes to the ball carrier. 

If you can stop the pass and the run from any kind of consistency, then you are still going to be in a Jim Tressel low scoring dogfight against the top defense in the nation, the kind of game in which Jim Tressel is very comfortable.

But maybe not quite as comfortable as in past years.  In past years, special teams have been a great strength for OSU, often giving the type of field position that Tressel stresses wins games.  This year, the punting is still lights out, and the kickoff coverage team is doing a decent job.  But OSU has had very few kick returns that went anywhere.  Part of this may be because very few teams ever get to kick the ball off to OSU except at the start of a half.

That brings us to the OSU defense.  The team that beats OSU is going to have to be a team that can score a great many points while not running the spread offense.  If you are a spread team, you might as well go home.  OSU will not lose this year to a spread offense.  They might give up some plays now and again, but OSU’s defense just has too much speed at too many positions to run the spread against it.

So the team that will beat the OSU defense will have to play straight up run the ball down your throat football and have a very good passing game via a QB experienced enough to handle the pressure, who will not get frustrated, and who will not make silly mistakes.  That QB will also have to have some foot speed to make things happen on broken plays.  Freshman and Sophomore QBs need not apply.

The only team that I am seeing out there right now that can make any of this happen is LSU.  But they still have to get through the rest of the season without a loss and hope that BC loses a game.  It will also help LSU out that they would be playing OSU just down the road from their home stadium.

The toughest game remaining on OSU’s schedule is Michigan.  While they do not run a spread offense, and are capable of running the ball down the throat of other teams, they have yet to prove themselves against a top drawer opponent.  The only good team they have played this year is Oregon, and they were hammered by the Ducks in Ann Arbor.  In fact, they will end up playing eight home games and only four games away.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not faulting Michigan for playing a weak schedule.  These things are decided five to seven years ago back when Notre Dame was a tough test.  But eeking out a victory over PSU in Ann Arbor is not like going to Happy Valley and dropping 37 points on them.

But the thing that makes OSU most likely to beat Michigan this year is the U of M pass defense.  These guys are slow and inexperienced, and have not yet faced a quality group of receivers.  Secondly, U of M has not shown a consistent ability to get pressure on opposing QBs (even against average offensive lines), and if you are not in OSU QB Todd Boeckman’s face on nearly every pass play, he is going to kill you sooner or later.  Third, Michigan does not have the depth to rotate in high quality back ups when their starters begin to tire.

OSU’s offensive line is anything but average this year.  Many astute observers of OSU football have remarked that this year’s offensive line is the best we have had since Jim Tressel has been coaching here.

So there you have it.  Barring injuries or bad weather, that is how you beat OSU.  Knowing how to do it is one thing though.  Doing it, as a growing number of teams in college football can now tell you, is quite another.

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