This one is too hard to predict.  There are too many variables.  First, we don’t know just yet if USC is for real.  They beat what is likely to turn out to be a very bad Virginia team very badly.  But that doesn’t mean that they are a bad team.  In watching the first half of that game, I did see times when UVA moved the ball against the USC defense.  The USC defense seemed to blitz every other down, which works against a QB who is starting his first game.

But Todd Boeckman isn’t starting his first game, and he has tools that he can use against such tactics.  OSU RB Maurice Wells is a very good blocker, and is especially known for his ability to pick up the blitz and get his man blocked.  Draws to Boom Herron or Brandon Saine are going to be effective against the blitz and will make USC think twice about doing it again. 

No one has put any pressure on USC QB Mark Sanchez this year.  But one thing we do know is that USC returns only one starter on its offensive line.  That was fine against the likes of UVA, but OSU linemen and linebackers are different types of fish.  How Sanchez will react to getting flushed out of the pocket by having Defensive Linemen in his backfield and having to throw on the run will be interesting to see. 

Another variable will be what effect the other two thirds of the OSU playbook will have on the game.  USC will not be able to take advantage of a stripped down and predicatable OSU offense like OU did.  We hid the play book from USC and suffered during week 2.  That may redound to our benefit if the offensive line shows up and makes things happen.

Another variable will be the fact that OSU has played two games and USC has played only one.  USC also had a week off.  Many people would like to have two weeks to prepare for a big game.  But Jim Tressel hates it, being under the belief unused things rust.  Jim Tressel is right 99% of the time, and that is good enough for me.  We may see a few mistakes because of this from USC.

UVA was not able to cover USC’s first and second receivers, so Sanchez was pretty much able to throw to whomever he chose.  But now that Donald Washington is back, he will be facing not one but two lockdown corners.  That still leaves him dump off passes to his dangerous RBs out of the backfield, but putting a spy like Jermale Hines on those guys (corner speed in a linebacker’s body) may put the damper on much of that.  Sanchez is also the QB who lost the game to Stanford last year in a home game for the Trojans.

One of the two biggest uncertainties will be Chris Wells.  If he is at full strength and running with confidence, OSU’s chances to win the game increase tenfold.  He does four things to a defense.  One, he rings them for over 100 yards.  Two, he breaks a long one for six points (usually on third and short).  Three, he tires out defensive linemen and linebackers.  Four, he forces the corners and the safeties into man coverage which is just too dangerous.

The second big uncertainty is the OSU offensive line.  If they run block to their abilities, then OSU will be just fine.  But if they turn in a performance like they had against OU (and to some extent YSU) then OSU will have no chance.  There was no reason for Todd Boeckman to get hit after releasing the ball at the YSU game.  It shows that some of these big jumbo linemen don’t have the quick feet to pass block. 

If the ends are getting to Boeckman, then Tressel is going to have to adapt and put in the Tight Ends as blockers (both of them, Nicol and Ballard, and excellent blockers, with Nicol getting the nod) who will chip the Defensive End into a lineman and then release out into the pattern to be available for a pass for a short gain (both of them are excellent receivers, with Ballard getting the nod).

Boeckman is going to have to speed up his release, and be very selective about when to throw the ball, and when to throw the ball into the stands.  Three step drops are going to be the order of the day.  Taking off running when the field opens up before him will not be a bad play, and if Boeckman can put in 50 or so yards on up the middle runs, it is going to be a long day for USC.

If we can pressure Sanchez, spy on the RBs Gable and McKnight, and get a few turnovers from frustrated USC players, we are going to do well in this game.

I really see this game as ending in many different ways.  It would not surprise me to see OSU get blown out, or USC get blown out.  A close game either way would not surprise me either.  There are just too many variables here.  So as fans, let’s just sit back and hope that we here in Columbus can enjoy a good result.  Hope is a plan for viewers, but it is not a plan for players.  Those boys need to bring their ‘A’ game, and bring it all damned day long.

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