Figuring out strength of schedule is always a tough thing to do.  That goes for during the season as well, but before the season, it is just so much darn guess work.  When you schedule a team like the Miami Hurricanes, you do it so far back that you have no idea whether or not they are going to be contenders or tomato cans.  Now they appear to be one of the better teams in the ACC, but that is faint praise indeed.  That is like saying:  “Jeez, that is one big microbe.  Take a look at that sucker, Frank!”

But good or bad, OSU will play them at home after working off the rust against Marshall.  Marshall is what you should be looking for in the first game of the season.  You will likely beat them, but they are always going to bring a certain level of excellence that will challenge your players and give the coaches plenty of film with which to show the players that they still have a lot of work to do.

After playing the Hurricanes, a shadow of who they were in 2002, OSU steps down a notch to play OU and Central Michigan.  I think that these teams are going to be at the same level as Marshall and OSU should come away 4-0 at that point with some valuable experience.  If the Hurricanes really aren’t a good team though, it will concern me that we will be an untested 4-0 going to our first away game in Illinois. 

Concern or not, I think we will beat Illinois.  Next up will be Indiana, and I just don’t see how we lose that game, especially since it will be played here in Columbus.

That brings us to the first real danger game of the season.  The Buckeyes will have to travel to Camp Randall and beat the Badgers.  Wisconsin has a tremendous offensive line which predictably yields them a good running game.  If OSU can avoid injury to any starting defensive linemen in the games leading up to that one and if Terrelle Pryor and the OSU running game can keep the Badgers off the field or so far back on the score that they cannot play catch up by running the ball, we have a good shot at winning that game.  That puts us at 7-0.

The next game is Purdue.  We lost to Purdue last year at Ross-Ade Stadium in a driving rainstorm with a QB with a hurt knee.  I can guarantee that OSU will not be playing the game at Ross-Ade Stadium this year, and it seems unlikely that Pryor will have an injured knee again.  While the weather may not be wonderful, I doubt that we will again see the kind of day meteorologically that we did last year.  A win there will put us to 8-0.

A trip to Minnesota (and I highly recommend that you go, Minneapolis is one cool place to party, especially in the bars on the Nicolette Mallway, hit “The Local” and drink a “Big Ginger” for me) would seem a likely candidate for a win to propel us to 9-0.  With Alabama playing in the SEC, a loss for them by then is certainly possible and we could be ranked number one in the nation.

Now we come to the third big game, Penn State.  I think we win this one since we are playing it at home and I don’t see Pryor making the mistakes against the Nittany Lions he has made in the past this time around.  That puts us at 10-0.  Two games left.

That brings us to our fourth big game, at Iowa.  These guys played us tough last year, and we needed a high pressure kick from Devon Barclay to put us over the edge.  Iowa does not have the talent to match up with us, but they certainly have the drive to make up for lack of talent.  That team is pretty confident in their own house, and I have to say that if we are going to lose one during the regular season (and I don’t think we are) then it will be this game.  That puts us at 11-0.

Lastly, the biggest game of the season, is Michigan.  That puts us at 12-0.

At this point it is too difficult to predict Glendale opponents.  The last three games will decide whether OSU will win the national championship.  Only one of those games is going to be a cakewalk.

There are three important things for OSU to accomplish this year in order to have a successful season (one where we beat Michigan, and as a bonus, compete in and win the National Championship).

While I have to present these three things in some sort of order, the order in which I am presenting them is not in order of importance, as they are all equally important.

First, Terrelle Pryor must continue to improve as a passing quarterback.  His first year, he got by with raw physical talent.  He was such a running threat that defenses had to weaken themselves against the pass to stop him and even then they could not often do it.  With such passing opportunities before him, it was not hard to complete passes, even with a throwing style that was clearly not mechanically sound.  While that was good against most opponents, on days when things weren’t working or against top opponents (Texas) it wasn’t enough.

In his sophomore year, Pryor improved his mechanics and started reading defenses better.  His improvement really took off when he was asked to do less rather than more towards the second half of last season.  After the disaster at Purdue last year, it seemed that somehow the lost art of run blocking was revived for the Buckeyes.  Teams defending the Buckeyes had to sell out to stop the run.  Pryor’s throwing style was forced to improve when he injured his knee against New Mexico State and became less mobile (though still far more mobile than most quarterbacks).

This year, he has to prove that he can master the difficult art of throwing over the middle from in the pocket and the game has to slow down for him.  If his technique improves so that he can make those throws over the middle of the field, and if his ability to spot the open player by going through his progression continues to improve, OSU will be a difficult team to stop offensively.  Pryor is in the right place to develop as a quarterback.  Jim Tressel was a QB himself for Baldwin Wallace and used to be OSU’s QB coach back in the early 1980s so he knows what he is doing when it comes to the development of QBs, as Troy Smith showed in 2006.

Second, the OSU offensive line has to continue to improve.  It is unclear whether or not this will continue. The offensive lines for the Buckeyes in the past ten years have all shared three central consistencies: A) they are all big and fast, manned by some of the nation’s top recruits, ten of which have gone on to play in the NFL; B) they have all underperformed and left OSU badly hanging; and C) they have all been coached by offensive line coach Jim Bollman.

Let’s get one thing straight.  I have nothing against Bollman as an offensive coordinator.  But as an offensive line coach, the product just has never been there and likely will never be there.  The lack of a good product has been covered up by the extraordinary talents of Maurice Clarett, Troy Smith, Beanie Wells, and now Terrelle Pryor.  It is enough to beat most teams on most days.  But it continues to be the glaring weakness of this team when we take on top talent like Florida, LSU and Texas in Bowl Games and teams like Texas and USC during the year.

Here is an idea from way out in left field.  Hire Earle Bruce to coach the offensive line.  Earle always had good offensive lines when he coached here.  Earle played as an offensive lineman in college for OSU.  Earle already has an office there at the Woody Hayes Practice Facility as a coach emeritus.  Let Bollman zero in on coordinating the offense and put someone else in charge of that line.  We would be unstoppable.

Third, with the unexpected return of Cameron Heyward for his senior season, OSU’s defensive line is more talented this year than it has been in a long time, but not as deep unless we have some more of those pleasant surprises like John Simon appear out of thin air to start mauling people.  The key factor here is avoiding injury to top quality people.  With a more productive offense this year, and with a running game developing that can keep the defense off the field for long stretches of time, we may just be able to avoid someone getting hurt.  But there has already been a knee or ankle injury to Nathan Williams, one of our top defensive linemen of unknown severity.  We do know that when he was injured, he was seen later on the sidelines on crutches, but that was some time ago, and young people heal fast.

So there you have the three keys to OSU’s success this year. 

There isn’t much else to blog about.  We are loaded at running back (with four guys that could start anywhere in the Big 10), wide receiver and linebacker.  The corners are a bit thin depth-wise, though the top two guys are more than up to snuff and the safeties are killers.  Our new punter looks promising, but we will see how his consistency develops.  Field goal kicking is fine with former professional soccer player Devon Barclay having hit some pretty big and high pressure kicks last year. 

One interesting thing to look for this year will be the use of the Tight End.  We have a freak (in a good way) playing for us named Jake Stoneburner.  He is more than big enough to be a traditional Tight End for OSU, but played WR in high school because of his ridiculous speed.  Jim Tressel has often said that there are three types of players, big, speed, and big speed.  Stoneburner is big speed all the way and if the Spring Game is any indication, he is becoming Pryor’s favorite oversized release valve.

Another recruiting battle is being waged for Detroit Southeastern linebacker, Ed Davis. Davis has stated that he will announce his decision on August 27. Other schools are also in the mix. Michigan was the first major program to offer Davis which may play into his decision.

Four-star offensive lineman Matt James of Cincinnati St. Xavier left the Buckeye State for the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame.

Five-star cornerback LaMarcus Joyner of Fort Lauderdale, Fla., committed to Florida State.

Five-star cornerback Josh Shaw of Palmdale, Calif., chose Florida State over Tressel’s Buckeyes as well.

Probably the real killer is the Buckeyes lost out on another five star, in-state linebacker prospect, Jordan Hicks, who chose Texas over the Buckeyes. Do we see a common theme here? Yes, Texas pounded the Buckeyes just a year ago. Boy, when you lose those Ohio boys, something must be wrong.

Overall, it appears the Buckeyes took a beating this year in recruiting.

Here’s a highlight video of Conelius Jones – Michigan’s QB recruit, along with Devin Gardner, for 2010. Depth at QB should no longer be a problem.

Here’s Michigan’s top QB recruit for 2010, Devin Gardner. He should push Forcier this fall as he has already enrolled in classes (Jan. 2010). Spring ball really helped get Forcier ready and it should do the same for Gardner. Question is – where will Robinson fit in with all these QB’s?

Here’s Pennsylvania’s top high school player, Jordan Paskorz, a Weakside defensive end from Allison Park, Pennsylvania. It will be interesting to see how much playing time he gets in the fall. At 6’3″ and 235 lbs., he’ll probably need to add some weight to play on the line. He looks good against high school competition.

Richard Ash follows several others from Pahokee, Florida who enrolled at Michigan. Ash is a four star recruit at Defensive Tackle. Ash originally planned to attend West Virginia but switched his allegiance after visiting Ann Arbor.

Old Mill’s Josh Furman rushed for almost a quarter mile, 414 yards, and scored 6 touchdowns and 2 2pt. conversions in his team’s 58-55 double overtime victory over previously unbeaten Arundel.

Michigan recruited him to probably play linebacker. At 6’3″ and 225 lbs, he runs a 4.4 40 yard dash. It will be interesting to see if he makes an impact as a freshman.